European Union-Nigeria Migration Partnerships: An Empirical Analysis of Return and Reintegration Outcomes

This study empirically analyses the outcomes of EU-Nigeria migration management partnerships, focusing specifically on voluntary return and reintegration programme results for Nigerian returnees facilitated between 2018 and 2024. The EU-Nigeria migration partnership, operationalised through the IOM Assisted Voluntary Return and Reintegration (AVRR) programmes and the EU Emergency Trust Fund for Africa (EUTF), has been one of Europe's largest bilateral migration management investments. Despite significant programme funding, empirical evidence on the durability and quality of reintegration outcomes for Nigerian returnees remains limited. This analytical study draws on IOM AVRR programme performance data, EUTF monitoring reports, and a primary tracer study of returnees in Lagos (South-West), Edo (South-South), and Borno (North-East) States conducted between 2023 and 2024. Outcome indicators measured include economic reintegration (income, employment, enterprise), social reintegration (community acceptance, family reunification), and psychosocial wellbeing. The study employs regression analysis to identify the factors most strongly associated with positive reintegration outcomes, including pre-departure skills assessment, reintegration grant size, and community-level support infrastructure. Findings fill an empirical gap in the academic literature on EU-Africa migration management effectiveness and have direct implications for programme design improvements. Keywords: EU-Nigeria migration partnership, voluntary return, reintegration outcomes, AVRR, EUTF Africa.