Gentrification, Displacement, and Housing Affordability in Victoria Island-Ikoyi Axis, Lagos

Gentrification processes in Lagos's premier commercial and residential districts generate complex outcomes for housing affordability, displacement of lower-income residents, and the social composition of high-value urban areas. This study empirically examines gentrification dynamics, displacement patterns, and their effects on housing affordability along the Victoria Island-Ikoyi axis in Lagos. Using a longitudinal research design, the study analyses residential land use change from 2015 to 2023 through satellite imagery change detection, rental price trend analysis from estate agency records, and a cross-sectional survey of 310 current and former residents assessing displacement experiences, housing cost burdens, and neighbourhood change perceptions. Logistic regression modelling predicts the probability of displacement based on tenure type, income level, and length of residence. In-depth interviews with 22 long-term residents, estate agents, and property developers provide qualitative depth on the mechanisms driving change. Findings are expected to document accelerating displacement of lower-income and middle-class residents from the study corridor, driven by commercial redevelopment pressure, rent escalation, and conversion of residential buildings to office and hotel use. The study addresses a research gap in displacement quantification within high-value Nigerian urban districts. Recommendations address anti-displacement policy instruments including inclusionary zoning, commercial-to-residential conversion controls, long-term resident protections, and affordable commercial space preservation requirements in the Victoria Island-Ikoyi development control framework. Keywords: Gentrification, Displacement, Housing affordability, Victoria Island, Lagos.