GIS-Based Analysis of Ethnic Diversity and Electoral Patterns in Rivers State

Understanding the spatial relationship between ethnic distribution and electoral outcomes is important for analysing democratic consolidation in Nigeria's multiethnic South South region. This study uses GIS to map ethnic community distributions and analyse their spatial correlation with electoral voting patterns in Rivers State across the 2019 and 2023 general elections. Ethnic distribution data sourced from community surveys and academic ethnolinguistic databases are generalised to ward and LGA boundaries. Electoral result data from the Independent National Electoral Commission are linked to spatial units and analysed using bivariate Moran's I to detect spatial associations between ethnic composition and candidate vote shares. Results reveal significant spatial clustering of vote shares along ethnic community boundaries, particularly in LGAs with dominant Ijaw, Ikwerre, and Ogoni populations. Transition zones of mixed ethnicity show more competitive electoral outcomes. The study contributes to academic discourse on ethnic voting behaviour while providing the Rivers State Independent Electoral Commission with spatial analytical tools for constituency review. Keywords: ethnic mapping, electoral GIS, Rivers State, spatial analysis, voting patterns