Remote Sensing Assessment of Lake Chad Shrinkage from the Nigerian Perspective

Lake Chad, shared by Nigeria, Cameroon, Niger, and Chad, has undergone dramatic shrinkage over recent decades with devastating consequences for fishing and farming communities in Borno State. This study assesses the temporal dynamics of Lake Chad's surface area from the Nigerian side using Landsat imagery from 2000 to 2023. Water body extent is delineated using the Normalised Difference Water Index across 23 years of imagery, and surface area time series are computed. Seasonal and inter-annual variability are analysed alongside rainfall records from CHIRPS to distinguish climate-driven fluctuations from long-term trends. Results confirm a net surface area reduction of approximately 38 percent since 2000 on the Nigerian side of the lake, with the most severe contraction occurring in the northeastern quadrant near Baga and Kukawa communities. The impact on shoreline recession and loss of floodplain irrigation area is quantified. The study provides evidence for Nigerian participation in the Lake Chad Basin Commission's restoration initiative. Keywords: Lake Chad, Landsat, water body change, remote sensing, Borno State