International Business Strategy Adaptation Under Climate Change Risk: A Multi-Sector Study of Multinational Operations in Nigeria

This dissertation examines how multinational enterprises operating across multiple sectors in Nigeria are adapting their international business strategies in response to the physical and transition risks arising from climate change, developing an original framework for understanding climate risk-driven strategy modification in a large developing economy context. Nigeria faces distinctive climate change exposures including coastal flooding in the Niger Delta, desertification in the North East, and extreme heat events across the Middle Belt, all of which create material risks for multinational operations in agriculture, infrastructure, energy, and consumer goods. Concurrently, global transition risks arising from carbon pricing policies in multinational home countries and destination markets add a regulatory risk dimension to strategy planning. The study employs a multi-sector longitudinal case study design examining twelve multinational firms across four sectors over the period 2018 to 2024, combining 55 semi-structured interviews with senior strategy, sustainability, and operations executives, analysis of climate risk disclosure documents, and physical climate scenario mapping using publicly available climate projection data. The theoretical framework integrates the dynamic capabilities view, the climate risk management literature, and the institutional theory of corporate environmental strategy. The dissertation develops an original Climate-Adaptive International Business Strategy Framework comprising four strategic archetypes characterising distinct combinations of physical risk adaptation and transition risk management approaches. Original contributions include the strategic archetype framework, a climate vulnerability mapping methodology for multinational operations in developing economies, and a theoretical elaboration of how climate risk modifies the conventional risk-return calculus of international market commitment decisions. Keywords: climate change, international business strategy, multinational enterprises, Nigeria, climate risk