The Developmental Impact of Chinese Investment in Nigeria: Beyond the Infrastructure-Resource Extraction Nexus

This dissertation critically evaluates the developmental impact of Chinese investment in Nigeria, moving beyond the dominant infrastructure-for-resources narrative to provide a disaggregated, empirically grounded analysis of investment motives, implementation quality, local content outcomes, and long-run development contributions across multiple sectors including construction, manufacturing, agriculture, and digital economy. China has become one of Nigeria's most significant bilateral investment partners, with an estimated cumulative investment exceeding 20 billion US dollars across formal and informal channels. Yet the development literature oscillates between uncritical celebration and equally uncritical condemnation of Chinese investment impacts, both positions inadequately supported by rigorous empirical evidence. The study employs a sequential mixed-methods design combining a comprehensive Sino-Nigerian investment database constructed from MOFCOM, fDi Markets, and NIPC sources with firm-level survey data from 85 Chinese-invested enterprises and 120 Nigerian firms with supply chain relationships with Chinese investors, and 50 elite interviews with Chinese and Nigerian executives, government officials, and development practitioners. The theoretical framework integrates South-South development cooperation theory, the developmental state framework, and the global value chain approach. The dissertation develops an original Differentiated Chinese Investment Impact Model that classifies Sino-Nigerian investment projects across a developmental impact spectrum from extractive to transformative, based on local content intensity, technology transfer depth, labour quality dimensions, and community spillover generation. Original contributions include the investment database, the impact classification model, and an empirically grounded critique of South-South solidarity narratives in Chinese investment discourse. Keywords: Chinese investment, Nigeria, developmental impact, South-South cooperation, local content