Investigating the Factors Affecting Freight Modal Choice Between Road and Rail in Nigeria

The dominance of road transport in Nigerian freight logistics, despite the potential efficiencies of rail for bulk and long-distance cargo, represents a persistent structural imbalance with significant cost and environmental consequences. This study empirically investigates the factors affecting freight shippers' modal choice between road and rail in Nigeria, focusing on the Lagos-Kano corridor as the primary inter-modal case. A stated preference and revealed preference survey design is employed with 150 freight shippers drawn from major commodity groups including fast-moving consumer goods, building materials, and agricultural produce. Discrete choice modelling using a mixed logit specification is applied to identify the relative weights assigned to transport cost, transit time, reliability, cargo safety, and service frequency in modal choice decisions. Findings reveal that transit time reliability is the most significant modal choice determinant, accounting for 38 percent of the model's explanatory power, followed by cost, cargo damage risk, and frequency. Rail's current low reliability is identified as the primary barrier preventing modal shift by shippers who express in principle willingness to use rail for long-haul movements. A latent class analysis identifies three distinct shipper segments: cost-sensitive shippers, reliability-focused shippers, and security-sensitive shippers, each requiring different service propositions to attract modal shift. The study fills an empirical gap in Nigerian freight modal choice literature and provides a framework for designing rail service improvements to attract road freight traffic. Keywords: freight modal choice, road versus rail, mixed logit, Nigeria, logistics.