Investigating the Long-Term Economic Returns to Vocational Education Investment in Nigeria: A Human Capital Analysis

This study investigated the long-term economic returns to vocational education investment in Nigeria, analyzing private and social rates of return using a human capital theoretical framework and nationally representative survey data. Robust economic return estimates are essential for guiding public investment decisions in vocational education, yet the Nigerian evidence base for return calculations is outdated, methodologically limited, and geographically concentrated. Drawing on secondary analysis of the Nigeria Living Standards Survey and primary follow-up data from 1,200 vocational education graduates and a comparable group of secondary school arts graduates across all six geopolitical zones, the study employed Mincerian earnings regression models to estimate private rates of return, and cost-benefit analysis to estimate social returns. Findings showed average private rates of return to vocational education of 11.3 percent per year of training, with significant variation by gender (males = 13.1 percent, females = 9.4 percent), zone (South West highest, North East lowest), and trade area (ICT and construction highest). Social rates of return averaged 8.7 percent, comparing favorably to alternative public investment options. Training quality and post-graduation support moderated returns substantially. The study recommends increased public investment in vocational education, equity-focused interventions to raise female returns, and geographic targeting of resource allocation. Keywords: economic returns, vocational education, human capital theory, Nigeria, Mincer regression.