Landscape-Scale Connectivity and Fragmentation Analysis for Forest Elephants in the Ogun-Osun Forest Mosaic

Forest elephant movement across the mosaic of forest reserves and agricultural land connecting Ogun and Osun States is increasingly constrained by land use change, yet no landscape-scale connectivity analysis specifically designed to inform elephant management has previously been conducted in this region. This study analyses current landscape connectivity and fragmentation for forest elephants in the Ogun-Osun forest mosaic, identifies critical corridor zones and movement bottlenecks, and evaluates the effect of projected land use change scenarios on connectivity outcomes. Circuitscape landscape connectivity modelling was applied to a resistance surface derived from satellite-based land cover classification, with resistance values calibrated using published forest elephant habitat preference data from West Africa. Morphological spatial pattern analysis was used to quantify fragmentation patterns. Three land use scenarios were simulated: business-as-usual, conservation-optimised, and development-optimised trajectories for 2035. Current landscape analysis identified four functional forest patches connected by three corridor routes, all of which pass through areas with active agricultural encroachment. Effective mesh size analysis confirmed significant fragmentation increase over the preceding fifteen years. Under the business-as-usual scenario, two of three identified corridors would be functionally severed by 2035. The conservation-optimised scenario, requiring legal protection of six critical bridge parcels totalling 4,200 hectares, maintained all three corridors and improved overall connectivity by 31%. The study provides spatial data to guide priority land acquisition and legal designation decisions by the Ogun and Osun State Forestry Commissions. Keywords: landscape connectivity, forest elephant, fragmentation, Ogun State, corridor analysis