📖 ABSTRACT/OVERVIEW
The Nigeria-Cameroon chimpanzee, classified as Critically Endangered on the IUCN Red List, faces accelerating population fragmentation in the Oban-Korup transboundary landscape, yet population viability analysis for this subspecies under contemporary and projected future threat scenarios has not previously been conducted. This study constructs and parameterises a spatially explicit population viability model for the Nigeria-Cameroon chimpanzee in the Oban (Nigeria) and Korup (Cameroon) landscape, integrating demographic vital rates, habitat quality data, and threat projections over a fifty-year simulation horizon. Age-specific survival and fecundity rates were estimated from thirteen years of long-term field monitoring data from Gashaka-Gumti National Park combined with published data from comparable populations. Habitat suitability was modelled using MaxEnt with contemporary satellite-based covariates, and projected under three shared socioeconomic pathway climate scenarios. Landscape connectivity among five identified subpopulations was quantified and integrated into the metapopulation model structure. Baseline simulations indicate a 34% probability of quasi-extinction within fifty years under current threat levels. Habitat loss acceleration under high-emission scenarios increased extinction probability to 61%. Connectivity corridor maintenance between Oban and Korup reduced extinction probability by 22 percentage points, identifying transboundary corridor protection as the highest-priority intervention. Poaching elimination scenarios delivered the second largest extinction risk reduction. The study provides the quantitative basis for a binational conservation action plan for this subspecies and establishes a reproducible model framework for future adaptive management decisions. Keywords: population viability analysis, Nigeria-Cameroon chimpanzee, metapopulation, Oban Hills, transboundary conservation
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