Longitudinal Analysis of Employment Outcomes for Technical Education Graduates in South West Nigeria: A 10-Year Cohort Study

This study provides a longitudinal analysis of employment outcomes for technical education graduates in South West Nigeria, tracking cohorts over a ten-year period from institutions in Lagos, Ogun, Oyo, Osun, Ondo, and Ekiti States. Longitudinal graduate tracking is essential for understanding the long-term labour market effects of vocational education investment, yet such studies are extremely rare in Nigerian VTE research, which overwhelmingly relies on cross-sectional or short-term follow-up designs. This study employs a prospective longitudinal cohort design, tracking 600 graduates of technical colleges and polytechnics who completed programmes between 2015 and 2016 through annual surveys over ten years. Employment trajectory analysis, occupational mobility mapping, and earnings progression modelling use panel data regression and sequence analysis techniques. Qualitative interviews with 30 purposively selected graduates at three-year intervals provide explanatory depth. Findings are anticipated to reveal heterogeneous employment trajectories, with a significant minority achieving sustained self-employment, while many cycle through informal employment and periods of unemployment. The study also models the roles of continuing education, entrepreneurship, social capital, and macroeconomic conditions in shaping trajectories. Theoretical contributions include a graduate employment trajectory typology grounded in empirical longitudinal data from the Nigerian vocational context. Policy contributions include evidence-based recommendations for post-graduation support systems, further education pathways, and employment facilitation infrastructure. Keywords: longitudinal study, employment outcomes, technical education, South West Nigeria, graduate tracking