Mapping Drought Frequency and Agricultural Vulnerability in Kebbi State

Recurrent droughts in Kebbi State pose serious threats to smallholder farming systems in Nigeria's North West geopolitical zone, disrupting livelihoods dependent on rain-fed agriculture of rice, sorghum, and millet across the state's diverse agro-ecological zones. This study maps drought frequency and agricultural vulnerability in Kebbi State using the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) derived from 30 years of rainfall records obtained from the Nigeria Meteorological Agency and analysed at 6-month and 12-month accumulation periods. SPI values were interpolated across a grid network using ordinary kriging and classified into drought intensity categories for each decade between 1994 and 2023. Agricultural vulnerability was assessed using a composite index combining crop exposure, household sensitivity, and adaptive capacity indicators measured through surveys of 260 farming households in Argungu, Birnin Kebbi, and Yauri local government areas. Results indicate a statistically significant increase in the frequency of moderate to severe drought events in the most recent decade (2014 to 2023) compared to the 1994 to 2004 baseline, with the longest drought durations recorded in the eastern agro-ecological zone of Kebbi State. The agricultural vulnerability index is highest among female-headed households with minimal access to irrigation and limited off-farm income. The study recommends investment in small-scale irrigation schemes, promotion of drought-tolerant crop varieties, and improved seasonal forecasting capacity for agricultural planning authorities in Kebbi State. Keywords: drought, SPI, agricultural vulnerability, Kebbi State, North West Nigeria.