Mechanisms of Parental Incarceration and Child Developmental Trajectories in Nigerian Urban Communities

This study examines the mechanisms through which parental incarceration affects child developmental trajectories in urban communities across Lagos, Abuja, and Kano, using a prospective cohort design and a theory of structural family stress and stigma. Parental incarceration is a growing phenomenon in Nigerian urban centres, driven by expanding criminal justice activity, yet its developmental consequences for children have received almost no empirical attention in Nigerian or broader African developmental research. A sample of 290 children aged 4 to 12 years with an incarcerated parent was recruited at baseline through correctional facility social welfare units and followed over two years alongside 290 matched control children with non-incarcerated parents. Developmental outcomes included cognitive performance, socio-emotional adjustment, school engagement, and physical health. Hypothesised mediating mechanisms, including household economic hardship, caregiver depression, family instability, and social stigma, were assessed at six-monthly intervals. Structural equation modelling with longitudinal mediation estimation was applied. Results indicate that caregiver depression and family economic hardship are the primary mediators through which paternal incarceration affects child socio-emotional and cognitive outcomes. Social stigma mediated the incarceration-school engagement relationship uniquely in urban Kano, reflecting locally specific community dynamics. Children with access to extended family support demonstrated significantly attenuated trajectory disruption. The study provides foundational empirical evidence for child-focused criminal justice reforms in Nigeria. Keywords: parental incarceration, child development, mechanisms, urban Nigeria, family stress theory.