Socioecological Predictors of Early School Leaving Among Adolescents in North West Nigeria: A Multi-Level Analysis

This study conducts a multi-level analysis of the socioecological predictors of early school leaving among adolescents in North West Nigeria, integrating data across individual, family, school, community, and policy levels across Sokoto, Kebbi, and Jigawa states. Early school leaving in North West Nigeria constitutes a severe developmental and human capital crisis, with out-of-school rates among the highest in the world. While economic poverty is often cited as the primary driver, the complex multi-level ecology of school leaving has not been systematically modelled in this region. This research employed a mixed-methods multi-level design. A household survey recruited 1,200 adolescents aged 12 to 17 years in three educational-leaving categories, alongside school and community-level data collection involving 36 schools and 12 communities. Qualitative case studies in four purposively selected communities provided contextual depth. Hierarchical generalized linear modelling decomposed variance across ecological levels. Results indicate that school-level variables, including teacher absenteeism, corporal punishment, and poor safety conditions, account for 31 percent of variance in early leaving after individual and family factors are controlled. Community-level marriage pressure on girls and child labour demand contribute independently at the contextual level. Federal and state educational policy fragmentation was identified as a system-level amplifier of community risks. The study recommends multi-level, systems-oriented school retention strategies tailored to the specific socioecological profiles of communities in North West Nigeria. Keywords: early school leaving, socioecological predictors, multi-level analysis, North West Nigeria, adolescents.