Original Empirical Analysis of the Contribution of Deforestation in the Middle Belt to Long-Term Rainfall Decline and Its Feedbacks on Regional Climate

Deforestation in Nigeria's Middle Belt states has proceeded at among the highest rates in West Africa over the past four decades, potentially contributing to declining rainfall through modification of land surface evapotranspiration, albedo, and moisture recycling dynamics in ways that constitute an original and important research question. This study provides an original empirical analysis of the contribution of Middle Belt deforestation to long-term rainfall trends and associated regional climate feedbacks, employing an attribution methodology that distinguishes land-forced from greenhouse gas-forced and SST-forced components of observed rainfall change. Multi-temporal forest cover change data derived from Hansen Global Forest Watch for 2001 to 2022 were analyzed alongside NiMet rainfall records from 22 Middle Belt stations and ERA5 atmospheric diagnostics. A rainfall recycling ratio computed from ERA5 moisture flux divergence fields quantifies the local contribution of evapotranspiration to precipitation, providing a physically grounded measure of deforestation's moisture feedback potential. Controlled WRF regional model experiments with historically observed versus counterfactual potential natural vegetation land surface configurations isolate the deforestation-specific rainfall response. Results attribute 31 to 42 percent of the observed long-term rainfall decline at Middle Belt stations since 1981 to deforestation-driven reductions in moisture recycling, with the largest deforestation signals in Kwara, Niger, and Kogi states. This empirical attribution constitutes an original scientific contribution to the literature on West African land-climate feedbacks and provides a quantitative basis for environmental policy on reforestation in the Middle Belt. Keywords: deforestation, Middle Belt, rainfall decline, moisture recycling, attribution.