Theoretical Framework for Climate Services Co-Production Between NiMet and Agricultural Value Chain Actors in the Food-Belt States of Nigeria

The gap between the supply of scientifically rigorous climate information by meteorological agencies and its effective uptake by agricultural value chain actors represents a fundamental challenge for climate services delivery in Nigeria, demanding theoretical reformulation beyond traditional linear information diffusion models. This study develops an original theoretical framework for climate services co-production between NiMet and agricultural value chain actors across the Food-Belt states of Benue, Kogi, and Nasarawa. The theoretical framework draws on innovation systems theory, boundary organization concepts, and human-centred design principles to conceptualize climate services co-production as a recursive multi-stakeholder process rather than a one-directional expert-to-user information flow. Empirical grounding is provided through 18 months of embedded participatory research with five agricultural value chain groups including input dealers, producer cooperatives, commodity traders, insurers, and processing firms, combined with process mapping of NiMet's current forecast production and dissemination workflows. Original theoretical contributions include the derivation of a co-production maturity model with five progressive levels applicable to Nigerian national meteorological service contexts, and a conceptual model of climate information value chain showing quantifiable economic value creation at each stage from observation through user action. Pilot co-production workshops applying the framework in Benue State produced three user-tailored agrometeorological bulletin formats evaluated by value chain participants as significantly more actionable than existing NiMet products. Recommendations provide a detailed implementation roadmap for NiMet's Climate Services Division. Keywords: climate services, co-production, NiMet, agricultural value chain, theoretical framework.