Perceived Supervisor Support, Affective Commitment, and Intention to Leave: Testing a Sequential Mediation Model in the Nigerian Hospitality Sector

This study tests a sequential mediation model linking perceived supervisor support (PSS) to intention to leave, through affective commitment and job satisfaction, among employees in the Nigerian hospitality sector, drawing data from hotels in Abuja and Calabar, North Central and South South geopolitical zones respectively. Staff turnover in Nigeria's hospitality industry is chronically high, creating operational inconsistency and escalating recruitment costs, yet the sequential motivational pathways connecting managerial support to turnover intention remain empirically undertested in this sector. A quantitative design was employed, with 260 hotel employees completing validated measurement instruments. Hayes PROCESS macro Model 6 was used to test the sequential mediation pathway. Eisenberger's Social Exchange Theory, Meyer and Allen's commitment model, and Locke's job satisfaction theory collectively underpin the framework. Findings confirm the full sequential mediation pathway: PSS positively predicts affective commitment, which positively predicts job satisfaction, which negatively predicts intention to leave. All indirect pathways are statistically significant, with the full serial chain carrying the largest portion of the total PSS-turnover effect. The study fills a specific methodological gap: while each individual link in this chain has been studied separately in Nigerian hospitality, no prior study has tested the complete sequential model in a single analytical framework. Seasonal employment and hotel category moderate the pathway strength. Recommendations include supervisor support development programs, regular check-in frameworks between supervisors and frontline staff, and affective commitment monitoring in annual HR surveys. Keywords: perceived supervisor support, affective commitment, intention to leave, hospitality sector, mediation