Predictors of Relapse in Patients with Alcohol Use Disorder Following Inpatient Detoxification at Lagos State University Teaching Hospital

Relapse following alcohol detoxification remains a central challenge in addiction treatment, with complex biological, psychological, and social determinants that require thorough examination. This study identifies predictors of relapse among patients with alcohol use disorder (AUD) discharged after inpatient detoxification at Lagos State University Teaching Hospital (LASUTH), South West Nigeria. A prospective cohort design will follow 120 patients with AUD from discharge over a 12-month period. Baseline assessments will include the Alcohol Dependence Scale (ADS), the Alcohol Abstinence Self-Efficacy Scale (AASE), comorbid depression and anxiety scores, family history of AUD, craving intensity, and social support availability. Follow-up assessments at 3, 6, and 12 months will document relapse events and their contextual triggers. Survival analysis (Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression) will identify time-to-relapse and independent predictors. Nigerian addiction medicine studies consistently highlight craving intensity, poor self-efficacy, lack of social support, and comorbid depression as robust relapse predictors. This study will generate prospective evidence to support relapse prevention programming at LASUTH and inform the design of aftercare services for AUD patients in Lagos State. Keywords: alcohol use disorder, relapse, predictors, LASUTH, detoxification