Principal Component Analysis of Socioeconomic Vulnerability in Communities Around Oil Spill Sites in Bayelsa State

Communities in Bayelsa State, South South Nigeria, situated in the heart of the Niger Delta, face compounding layers of socioeconomic vulnerability exacerbated by petroleum hydrocarbon contamination of farmland and fishing waters. This study applies principal component analysis to synthesise a multidimensional socioeconomic vulnerability index for 45 oil-impacted communities in Ogbia and Nembe Local Government Areas. A survey instrument captures 18 indicator variables across five domains: livelihood security, food access, housing quality, healthcare access, and environmental exposure. Data are collected from 540 household respondents using stratified random sampling, with stratification based on proximity to documented oil spill sites from the National Oil Spill Detection and Response Agency database. Principal component analysis reduces the 18 indicators to five orthogonal components that cumulatively explain 74 percent of total variance. The first component, dominated by livelihood security and food access indicators, is interpreted as a composite material deprivation dimension. Composite vulnerability scores are computed as weighted linear combinations of component scores and mapped at the community level. Results identify 12 communities in Ogbia LGA as critically vulnerable, with proximity to active oil infrastructure and crop yield decline as the strongest vulnerability drivers. The study recommends targeted livelihood restoration programmes and environmental remediation for the identified critically vulnerable communities. Keywords: principal component analysis, socioeconomic vulnerability, oil spill, Bayelsa State, Niger Delta.