Simulation of Supply Chain Disruption Impacts on Food Security in Taraba State Using System Dynamics

Supply chain disruptions caused by ethno-religious conflicts, flooding, and poor road infrastructure in Taraba State, North East Nigeria, periodically trigger localised food insecurity crises affecting farming and pastoralist communities in the Mambilla Plateau and Benue Valley areas. This study develops a system dynamics simulation model to trace the feedback mechanisms linking supply chain disruptions to food availability, price spikes, and household nutritional outcomes over a 24-month simulation horizon. The model is constructed using Vensim software and incorporates stock and flow structures representing food production, storage, market supply, consumer demand, and household food expenditure. Parameter values are calibrated from state-level agricultural production reports, market price monitoring data, and food security assessment findings published by the Famine Early Warning Systems Network for Taraba State. Scenarios simulate disruptions of varying severity: a 30-day road blockage, a 60-day conflict-induced market closure, and a combined flood-conflict scenario. Results indicate that the combined scenario triggers a food price spike of 87 percent above baseline within six weeks and pushes an additional 340,000 persons below the food security threshold. The model identifies buffer stock accumulation and alternative route investment as the most effective buffering interventions. Keywords: system dynamics, supply chain disruption, food security, Taraba State, simulation modelling.