School Dropout Prevention Programmes and Their Effectiveness in Reducing Dropout Rates in Lagos State

This study evaluates the effectiveness of school dropout prevention programmes in reducing secondary school dropout rates in Lagos State, South West Nigeria. Lagos State has implemented several dropout prevention initiatives in recent years, including school-based counselling expansion, conditional cash transfers for at-risk students, and a back-to-school campaign targeting out-of-school children in urban slum communities. Despite these efforts, dropout rates in certain local government areas remain persistently high. A quasi-experimental evaluation design was adopted, comparing dropout rates in 30 schools implementing structured dropout prevention programmes with 30 matched control schools without specific programmes across Alimosho, Badagry, and Epe local government areas. Programme implementation quality was assessed using fidelity checklists, and dropout rates were computed from three-year school register data. Logistic regression and propensity score matching were applied. Results indicate that schools implementing high-fidelity dropout prevention programmes achieved a 22 percent reduction in annual dropout rates compared to control schools, with the strongest effects in schools combining counselling, family engagement, and peer mentoring components. Single-component programmes showed weaker and less sustained effects. The study concludes that multi-component, high-fidelity dropout prevention programmes are significantly effective in reducing secondary dropout in Lagos State. It recommends that the Lagos State Ministry of Education mandate evidence-based multi-component dropout prevention programmes in all high-risk secondary schools and develop a dropout risk early warning system using attendance, academic performance, and behavioural indicators to trigger timely intervention.

Keywords: dropout prevention, secondary school, programme effectiveness, Lagos State, at-risk students.