Socioeconomic Determinants of Secondary School Completion Rates in Northern Nigeria: A Multi-State Analysis

This study empirically investigates the socioeconomic determinants of secondary school completion rates across selected northern Nigerian states, using a multi-state panel data approach to identify structural factors driving completion gaps. Secondary school completion rates in Nigeria's North West and North East zones remain significantly below national and international benchmarks, with complex socioeconomic drivers that cross individual, household, community, and institutional levels. This study uses a multilevel analytical design, drawing on harmonised household survey data from the National Bureau of Statistics 2018 to 2022 Living Standards Measurement Survey and state-level education administrative data from six northern states. Completion rate is defined as the proportion of enrolled secondary students completing Senior Secondary Three. Independent variables include household income, parental education, distance to nearest school, community poverty rate, and state per capita education expenditure. Multilevel logistic regression is applied to decompose individual and contextual effects. Results reveal that household income and maternal education are the strongest individual-level predictors of completion, while state education expenditure per pupil and availability of secondary schools within 5 kilometres are the most significant contextual determinants. Gender moderates all socioeconomic effects, with girls showing greater completion sensitivity to household poverty. The study concludes that secondary school completion in northern Nigeria is jointly determined by household and structural factors. It recommends that northern state governments prioritise per capita education spending growth and conditional cash transfer schemes targeting poor households with adolescent girls.

Keywords: secondary school completion, socioeconomic determinants, northern Nigeria, multilevel analysis, girls' education.