Spatial Analysis of Crime Distribution in Kaduna South Local Government Area

Urban crime geography offers important insights into the spatial clustering of criminal activity and the environmental correlates that shape patterns of insecurity in Nigerian cities. This study conducts a spatial analysis of crime distribution in Kaduna South Local Government Area, one of the most densely populated and socioeconomically complex districts of Kaduna State in the North West geopolitical zone. Crime incidence data for 2019 to 2023 were obtained from the Kaduna State Police Command, comprising reported cases of armed robbery, assault, burglary, and arson, and were georeferenced to ward-level administrative boundaries. Kernel density estimation was applied in ArcGIS to identify crime hotspots, and spatial autocorrelation analysis using Moran's I statistic was used to test for clustering significance. Results reveal significant positive spatial autocorrelation (Moran's I = 0.61, p < 0.01), with primary crime clusters concentrated around Kawo market, Barnawa, and Tudun Wada neighbourhoods characterised by high population density, limited street lighting, and proximity to informal commercial activities. Logistic regression analysis identifies poverty incidence, unemployment rates, and land use mix as significant predictors of high-crime ward designation. The study recommends situational crime prevention measures including improved street lighting, community policing initiatives, and targeted poverty alleviation programmes in identified hotspot zones. Keywords: crime geography, spatial analysis, Kaduna, urban security, North West Nigeria.