Statistical Correlation Between Non-Governmental Organisation Activities and Poverty Reduction in Kogi State

Non-governmental organisations operate extensive poverty alleviation programmes in Kogi State, North Central Nigeria, yet the statistical relationship between their activity intensity and measurable poverty reduction at the community level has not been rigorously quantified. This study examines the statistical correlation between NGO programme activity and poverty reduction indicators in Kogi State. Secondary data combining Kogi State NGO Council activity reports (2018 to 2022) and state-level poverty indicators from the National Bureau of Statistics were analysed for 21 LGAs. NGO activity was operationalised as an annual composite index combining number of active organisations, programme beneficiary count, and expenditure per capita. Poverty indicators included multidimensional poverty headcount, food insecurity prevalence, and net school attendance ratio. Pearson and Spearman correlations were computed, with partial correlations controlling for LGA government expenditure. Spearman correlation between NGO activity index and multidimensional poverty reduction was -0.61 (p < 0.001). Partial correlation controlling for government expenditure remained statistically significant at -0.48 (p = 0.032). Food security showed the strongest relationship with NGO activity among poverty sub-components. LGAs with higher NGO expenditure per capita showed significantly lower multidimensional poverty incidence after two years on lag analysis. The study provides statistical evidence supporting NGO programme effectiveness in Kogi State and recommends coordination platforms to concentrate NGO activities in highest-poverty LGAs for greater impact efficiency. Keywords: NGO activities, poverty reduction, Kogi State, Spearman correlation, multidimensional poverty