Statistical Evaluation of Solid Waste Generation Rates in Katsina State for Urban Planning

Quantifying solid waste generation rates and their determinants is a statistical prerequisite for urban waste management planning in rapidly growing Nigerian cities, with Katsina State, North West Nigeria, facing increasing municipal waste challenges linked to population growth and changing consumption patterns. This study statistically evaluates solid waste generation rates across household and commercial sources in Katsina metropolis. A two-week waste weighing study was conducted across 80 randomly selected households and 40 commercial establishments in Katsina North, Katsina South, and Batagarawa LGAs. Daily waste weight per household was recorded, and waste composition was characterised by component fraction sorting. Regression analysis identified predictors of household waste generation rate. The mean household daily waste generation rate was 0.68 kg per person per day (95% CI: 0.63 to 0.73 kg). Food waste constituted 68 percent of total waste by weight, followed by plastics (12 percent) and paper (8 percent). Household income (r = 0.54, p < 0.001) and household size (r = 0.41, p < 0.001) were the strongest correlates of total daily waste generation. Commercial establishments generated a mean of 14.2 kg per day, with food vendors generating the highest volumes. The study provides waste generation rate estimates essential for the Katsina State Waste Management Authority's fleet sizing, route optimisation, and landfill capacity planning decisions. Keywords: solid waste generation, urban planning, Katsina State, regression analysis, waste composition