Statistical Study of Marriage Dissolution Rates and Socioeconomic Correlates in Oyo State

Marriage dissolution through divorce or separation carries significant social, economic, and child welfare consequences, and its statistical characterisation alongside socioeconomic correlates in Oyo State, South West Nigeria, provides essential data for family welfare policy formulation. This study statistically analyses marriage dissolution rates and their socioeconomic correlates in Oyo State. Secondary data from the National Population Commission Vital Registration System for Oyo State were obtained, covering 2016 to 2021. Crude dissolution rates per 1,000 married persons were computed annually. Panel regression explored associations between dissolution rates and LGA-level socioeconomic indicators including income poverty rate, urban residence proportion, female labour force participation, and educational attainment. Crude dissolution rates ranged from 4.1 to 6.3 per 1,000 married persons, rising significantly after 2019. Urban LGAs showed dissolution rates 1.8 times higher than rural LGAs on average. Panel regression identified female labour force participation (beta = 0.41, p = 0.004) and urban residence (beta = 0.36, p = 0.007) as significant positive correlates, while higher male educational attainment was negatively associated with dissolution (beta = -0.28, p = 0.023). The COVID-19 period coincided with a statistically significant spike in dissolution filing rates in Ibadan metropolitan LGAs. The study recommends marriage and family counselling programme expansion and economic support for single-parent households as responsive policy measures in Oyo State. Keywords: marriage dissolution, divorce statistics, Oyo State, socioeconomic correlates, panel regression