Study of Population Distribution and Growth Trends in Cross River State

Population distribution data are foundational for infrastructure planning and resource allocation, and analysing growth trends in Cross River State using official statistics supports evidence-based governance in the South South zone. This study analysed population distribution and growth trends across 18 Local Government Areas in Cross River State using NBS 1991, 2006, and 2022 projection estimates. Descriptive statistics, population growth rate calculations, age-sex pyramids, and dependency ratio computations were performed. Choropleth maps were produced to visualise LGA-level population density patterns. Cross River State's estimated population grew from 1.9 million in 1991 to 4.1 million in 2022, a compound annual growth rate of 2.64 percent. Calabar Municipality and Calabar South accounted for 28.3 percent of the state population despite occupying only 3.1 percent of land area. The age-sex pyramid showed a broad-base structure with persons under 15 constituting 44.2 percent of the population. Total dependency ratio was 87 per 100 working-age persons. Rural LGAs in Obanliku and Etung showed slow growth, suggesting out-migration. Data quality inconsistencies between official estimates and community projections were documented. Recommendations include conducting a comprehensive census, developing LGA-specific population projection models, and using spatial population data to prioritise infrastructure development budgets in Cross River State's underserved zones.

Keywords: population distribution, growth trends, Cross River State, NBS data, dependency ratio