Supply Chain Risk Assessment in the Oil and Gas Sector: An Exploratory Study of Downstream Firms in Delta State

This study provides an exploratory examination of supply chain risk assessment practices in downstream oil and gas firms operating in Delta State, South South Nigeria. The downstream sector, which includes petroleum product distribution, retail outlets, and lubricant supply, faces a complex risk environment encompassing crude price volatility, pipeline vandalism, regulatory uncertainty, and distribution infrastructure failures. Effective risk identification and mitigation are essential for maintaining supply continuity and protecting business viability. Using an exploratory mixed-methods design, structured questionnaires and semi-structured interviews were conducted with 55 operations managers, logistics coordinators, and risk compliance officers across 10 downstream firms registered with the Department of Petroleum Resources in Delta State. The study examines the types of supply chain risks identified, the risk assessment methods in use, and the effectiveness of current mitigation strategies. Risk categories investigated include demand risk, supply risk, operational risk, and environmental risk. Qualitative responses are thematically analysed, while quantitative data are presented descriptively. The study draws on recent supply chain risk management literature and oil and gas sector operational frameworks. Findings are expected to reveal a heavy reliance on informal, reactive risk responses rather than structured risk registers or scenario planning tools. Recommendations address the need for formalised supply chain risk management frameworks tailored to the regulatory and security context of Nigeria's downstream oil and gas sector. Keywords: supply chain risk, risk assessment, oil and gas, Delta State, downstream operations.