The Effect of Poverty on Mental Health Outcomes Among Families in Rural North Central Nigeria: A Structural Equation Modeling Approach

Poverty is a powerful social determinant of mental health, yet evidence on its direct and mediated pathways to psychiatric outcomes in rural North Central Nigeria is scarce. This study employs structural equation modeling (SEM) to examine the pathways through which poverty affects mental health outcomes among families in rural communities in Niger and Nasarawa States, North Central Nigeria. A community-based cross-sectional design will recruit 350 household heads from eight communities using multistage sampling. Household poverty will be measured using the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI), and mental health outcomes will be assessed using the General Health Questionnaire-12 (GHQ-12) and PHQ-9. Potential mediators, including food insecurity (HFIAS), social support (Oslo Social Support Scale), and perceived hopelessness (Beck Hopelessness Scale), will be measured and incorporated into the SEM framework. Confirmatory factor analysis will precede full structural model testing. Evidence consistently demonstrates that poverty increases mental illness risk through multiple pathways, yet pathway modeling has rarely been applied in Nigerian rural populations. Findings will generate evidence for policy advocacy linking poverty reduction and mental health programming in North Central Nigeria. Keywords: poverty, mental health, structural equation modeling, rural Nigeria, North Central