The European Union’s Normative Power and Democratic Backsliding in Nigeria: An Empirical Study

This study empirically examines the relationship between the European Union's exercise of normative power and democratic backsliding tendencies in Nigeria, testing whether EU normative engagement has mitigated or remained ineffective against erosion of democratic norms during the period 2015 to 2024. Drawing on Manners' Normative Power Europe framework and Levitsky and Ziblatt's democratic backsliding typology, the study designs an empirical assessment of EU normative instruments, including election observation, EIDHR programming, governance conditionality, and diplomatic statements, and correlates these with measured democratic performance indicators for Nigeria. Data sources include EU EOM reports, V-Dem democracy indices, Freedom House scores, and Nigeria-specific democratic governance assessments from the Mo Ibrahim Foundation. The quantitative component employs a time-series analysis of democratic governance indicators, while the qualitative component draws on interviews with EU delegation officials and Nigerian civil society actors in Lagos and Abuja conducted between 2023 and 2024. The study fills a gap in the literature by moving beyond normative theoretical debates to generate empirically grounded assessments of EU normative power effectiveness in Nigeria. Findings are expected to challenge or refine existing claims about the EU as a democracy promoter in West Africa and to generate testable propositions for future cross-country comparative research. Keywords: EU normative power, democratic backsliding, Nigeria, empirical study, democracy promotion.