The Management of Oil Windfall Revenue and Its Impact on Nigeria’s Foreign Aid Commitments

This study examines the relationship between cycles of oil windfall revenue in Nigeria and the country's external aid and diplomatic financing commitments, investigating whether Nigeria's foreign policy generosity, including contributions to African peacekeeping, technical assistance programmes, and regional organisation budgets, is systematically affected by fluctuations in petroleum income. Nigeria's external commitments are funded largely through federal budget allocations dependent on oil revenue, making foreign policy activism vulnerable to commodity price cycles. Drawing on political economy theory and resource curse frameworks, this research analyses the correlations between oil price trends and Nigeria's foreign policy financing from 2015 to 2024, covering both boom and bust cycles. The study employs a mixed-methods design, combining analysis of federal budget data, ECOWAS and AU financial contribution records, and Ministry of Foreign Affairs appropriations with qualitative interviews with budget officials and foreign policy analysts. Particular attention is paid to the management of the Excess Crude Account and its role in sustaining foreign policy commitments during revenue downturns. Findings are expected to show that Nigeria's foreign policy financing is procyclical, contracting during oil downturns in ways that damage its regional diplomatic credibility and multilateral contribution commitments. Recommendations address the need for counter-cyclical foreign policy financing mechanisms. Keywords: oil revenue, foreign aid, Nigeria, political economy, foreign policy financing.