Theorising Climate Migration and Environmental Displacement in the Lake Chad Basin: A Geopolitical Ecology Framework

Climate-induced displacement in the Lake Chad Basin, spanning Borno State in Nigeria's North East geopolitical zone alongside adjacent Cameroonian, Chadian, and Nigerien territories, constitutes one of the most complex and multi-causal displacement systems globally, yet existing scholarly frameworks inadequately theorise the interaction of environmental, political, and structural forces driving population movement from this shrinking ecosystem. This study develops and empirically applies a Geopolitical Ecology framework that synthesises political ecology, climate migration theory, and critical geopolitics to analyse climate displacement dynamics in the Lake Chad Basin. The theoretical framework positions displacement not as a simple biophysical outcome but as a socially and politically mediated process shaped by pre-existing vulnerabilities, state territorial practices, and transboundary resource governance failures. Empirical research draws on 18 months of multi-sited fieldwork across Kukawa, Mobbar, and Abadam LGAs in Borno State combining life history interviews with 140 displaced and residual households, expert interviews with 35 humanitarian and governance actors, and time-series remote sensing analysis of lake shrinkage and agricultural productivity decline from 2000 to 2023. The framework contributes three original theoretical propositions: that climate displacement is systematically undercounted due to conflation with conflict displacement in data collection systems; that state security responses to the Boko Haram insurgency have foreclosed climate adaptation options that otherwise existed for Lake Chad communities; and that transboundary environmental governance failure is a co-equal driver of displacement alongside biophysical lake shrinkage. This study makes a significant original theoretical contribution to climate migration geography and provides policy-relevant evidence for the Lake Chad Basin Commission. Keywords: climate migration, Lake Chad Basin, geopolitical ecology, displacement, North East Nigeria.