Thucydides’ History and Contemporary Conflict Analysis: Applications in Understanding the Boko Haram Insurgency

Thucydides' History of the Peloponnesian War is widely regarded as a foundational text in conflict analysis and international relations theory, distinguished by its rational, secular, and psychological analysis of the causes of war and the conduct of violence. This study examines the analytical utility of Thucydidean frameworks, particularly the concepts of fear, honour, and self-interest as drivers of conflict, and the methodology of eyewitness-critical historiography, for understanding the Boko Haram insurgency in North East Nigeria. A hermeneutical-analytical methodology was adopted, applying Thucydides' causal analysis and his Melian Dialogue framework of power asymmetry to academic literature on the origins, conduct, and social dimensions of the Boko Haram conflict, drawing on sources from 2018 to 2023. Interviews with five conflict scholars at the University of Maiduguri provided primary academic perspective. Findings indicate that Thucydidean fear-honour-interest triads, particularly the fear of societal transformation and the honour of religious identity assertion, offer a productive analytical template for examining Boko Haram's ideological drivers. The Stasis (civil dissolution) analysis of Book III bears direct parallels with North East Nigeria's pre-insurgency community fragmentation. The study concludes that Thucydides provides a durably relevant analytical toolkit for conflict scholars and recommends integrating classical historiography into peace and conflict studies courses at Nigerian universities.

Keywords: Thucydides, conflict analysis, Boko Haram, North East Nigeria, classical historiography