Uneven Development, Spatial Justice, and the Political Economy of Infrastructure Investment in Nigeria’s Federal System

Nigeria's federal architecture generates systematic spatial inequalities in infrastructure investment outcomes that reflect the political economy of inter-governmental fiscal relations, ethnic patronage networks, and uneven development dynamics, rather than need-based allocation principles, producing cumulative geographic disparities in public goods access across the country's six geopolitical zones. This study analyses the political economy of federal infrastructure investment distribution in Nigeria using a spatial justice analytical framework combined with political economy theory. The study covers six infrastructure sectors: roads, power, water, health, education, and ICT, examining federal budget execution data from 2010 to 2023 disaggregated to state and geopolitical zone levels from the Budget Office of the Federation archives and Office of the Accountant General of the Federation reports. Spatial inequality decomposition analysis separates within-zone from between-zone inequality in infrastructure provision scores constructed from multi-sector composite indices. Econometric panel analysis with state fixed effects tests whether infrastructure allocation tracks fiscal need, population size, population density, or political alignment with the federal executive. Qualitative research comprising 60 semi-structured interviews with former ministers, Federal Executive Council members, legislators, and Budget Office technical staff provides a political economy account of allocation decision processes. Results demonstrate persistent and statistically significant under-investment in the North East and South South geopolitical zones relative to their population and need indicators, controlling for other factors. Political alignment with the federal ruling party is confirmed as a statistically significant predictor of higher infrastructure allocation. This study makes an original empirical and theoretical contribution to Nigerian political geography and spatial justice scholarship. Keywords: uneven development, spatial justice, infrastructure, federal system, Nigeria.