Urban Climate Governance Capacity, Polycentricity, and Adaptive Management in Lagos State: A Comparative Institutional Analysis

Climate governance in African megacities demands polycentric institutional arrangements capable of coordinating action across multiple scales and sectors, yet empirical assessments of governance capacity, polycentricity, and adaptive management effectiveness remain largely absent from the African urban climate governance literature, particularly for Lagos State in Nigeria's South West geopolitical zone. This study develops a comparative institutional analysis of urban climate governance capacity and polycentricity in Lagos State, examining formal government institutions, private sector actors, civil society organisations, and informal community governance structures as interconnected governance nodes. The theoretical framework draws on polycentric governance theory, adaptive management theory, and urban climate governance scholarship to construct a typology of governance capacity dimensions: technical knowledge, institutional authority, financial resources, stakeholder networks, and adaptive learning systems. Empirical research employs a comprehensive institutional mapping exercise identifying 248 actors operating across 11 thematic climate governance domains in Lagos State. Social network analysis is applied to the mapped actor-network to compute governance network density, centrality distributions, and bridging actor identification. Structured governance capacity assessments were conducted with 96 key actors using a validated capacity scoring instrument. Comparative case study analysis examines three climate governance domains in depth: urban flooding, urban heat, and coastal erosion, contrasting governance performance across domains. Results reveal that Lagos State's climate governance architecture combines relatively high technical capacity in established environmental agencies with critically low adaptive learning capacity and weak bridging mechanisms between formal government and community-based governance actors. Private sector climate engagement is largely reactive and compliance-driven rather than proactive. The study advances polycentric climate governance theory with original African megacity evidence. Keywords: climate governance, polycentricity, adaptive management, Lagos State, South West Nigeria.