Urban Compactness, Land Use Mix, and Sustainability Outcomes in Lagos Metropolitan Area: An Empirical Analysis

Urban compactness and mixed land use have been theorized as pathways to more sustainable cities, reducing automobile dependence, lowering energy consumption, and improving access to services. However, empirical evidence from sub-Saharan African megacities remains limited and contextually contested. This study conducts an empirical analysis of the relationship between urban compactness, land use mix, and sustainability outcomes in the Lagos Metropolitan Area, drawing on spatial data from 2020 to 2024. Using GIS analysis of building density, land use classification data, and transport accessibility indices across 35 planning zones, the study computes composite compactness and land use diversity scores and correlates these with environmental, social, and economic sustainability outcome measures. Primary data were collected from 380 household surveys on transport mode choice, energy expenditure, and service accessibility across zones with varying compactness profiles. Multilevel regression modelling is employed to isolate the effects of urban form from socioeconomic controls. Findings are expected to demonstrate a positive but non-linear relationship between land use mix and transport mode sustainability, with compact mixed-use zones exhibiting lower car ownership rates and higher pedestrian trip shares, though density thresholds beyond which negative outcomes emerge are also identified. The study critically examines whether compactness benefits in Lagos accrue equitably across income groups. Recommendations address integration of land use mix standards into Lagos planning zones, densification corridors along BRT lines, and equity-conscious compactness strategies that protect affordable housing in high-density areas. Keywords: Urban compactness, Land use mix, Sustainability, Lagos, Spatial analysis.