Electoral Violence, Administrative Integrity, and Voter Behaviour in North West Nigeria

This study empirically analyses the relationships among electoral violence, administrative integrity of electoral institutions, and voter behaviour in the North West geopolitical zone, covering Kano, Kaduna, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, Zamfara, and Jigawa States. Electoral violence has been a recurrent feature of Nigerian democracy and its effects on citizen participation and institutional trust represent a critical research gap with implications for democratic consolidation. A cross-sectional survey of 560 registered voters supplemented by analysis of INEC election management data and ACLED electoral violence incident data from the 2019 and 2023 general elections provides the empirical base. Structural equation modelling (SEM) is used to test a causal path model linking electoral violence exposure, INEC administrative integrity perceptions, vote-buying vulnerability, and voter turnout. The Electoral Integrity Theory and the Fear Theory of Political Participation provide the conceptual framework. Findings reveal that electoral violence exposure has a direct negative effect on voter turnout and an indirect effect through reduced trust in INEC's administrative capacity to guarantee safe voting environments. Communities that perceived INEC administration as transparent and impartial showed resilient voter participation even in the presence of moderate violence exposure. Anti-vote-buying interventions are found to be more effective in high-administrative-integrity contexts. Keywords: electoral violence, administrative integrity, voter behaviour, North West Nigeria, INEC.