Public Expenditure on Education and Human Capital Development in Kaduna State

This study empirically examines the relationship between public expenditure on education and human capital development outcomes in Kaduna State, Nigeria's North West geopolitical zone, over the period 2013 to 2023. While the federal government has mandated state compliance with the UNESCO benchmark of 15-20 percent of annual budget allocated to education, actual state education spending and its development returns are poorly documented in the empirical literature. Using a longitudinal research design, the study analyses Kaduna State budget execution data, education sector performance reports, and human capital index components including school enrolment rates, literacy rates, and learning outcome assessment scores. Vector autoregression (VAR) modelling and Granger causality tests are used to examine dynamic relationships between education spending and human capital outcomes. The Human Capital Theory and the Endogenous Growth Model provide the theoretical grounding. Findings reveal a long-run positive relationship between real per capita education expenditure and human capital development indicators, but with a two to four year lag, indicating that immediate disbursement-outcome correlations underestimate education investment returns. Capital expenditure on school infrastructure has larger human capital effects than recurrent staff cost expenditure. The study recommends multi-year education investment planning frameworks, outcomes-linked budget allocations, and the adoption of learning poverty tracking as a human capital monitoring tool. Keywords: public expenditure, education, human capital, Kaduna State, budget allocation.