Anti-Corruption Agencies and the Rule of Law in South West Nigeria

This study empirically examines the operational effectiveness of anti-corruption agencies, principally the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) and the Independent Corrupt Practices Commission (ICPC), in upholding the rule of law in South West Nigerian states covering Lagos, Ogun, Oyo, Osun, Ondo, and Ekiti. Despite a robust institutional anti-corruption architecture, Nigeria's rule of law indices remain weak relative to comparable middle-income countries. A mixed-methods comparative design is employed, drawing on prosecution and conviction data from EFCC and ICPC court cases between 2019 and 2023, supplemented by 38 interviews with prosecutors, judges, civil society anti-corruption specialists, and independent legal scholars. Regression analysis with prosecution success rates and conviction rates as dependent variables and agency independence, political exposure of defendants, and judicial capacity as key independent variables is the primary estimation approach. The Rule of Law Theory and the Institutional Theory of Anti-Corruption Enforcement provide the conceptual foundation. Findings reveal that prosecution success rates are significantly lower for politically exposed persons and cases involving state government officials, reflecting selective enforcement shaped by political considerations. Cases prosecuted in states with stronger judicial infrastructure, as measured by judge-to-population ratios and case clearance rates, have significantly higher conviction rates. The study recommends insulating anti-corruption agencies from executive interference through structural independence reforms and improved judicial resource allocation. Keywords: anti-corruption agencies, rule of law, EFCC, ICPC, South West Nigeria.