Digital Transformation and the Future of Adult Education Delivery in Nigeria: A Futures Studies Approach

This study applied a futures studies methodology to examine the implications of digital transformation for adult education delivery in Nigeria over a 15-year horizon to 2040, developing scenario-based strategic frameworks for system adaptation. While significant attention has been devoted to immediate digital learning adoption challenges in Nigerian adult education, prospective analysis of transformative digital change trajectories and their adult education system implications requires a dedicated futures-oriented investigation. The study employed a mixed futures studies methodology combining a modified Delphi process involving three rounds of expert consultation with 40 Nigerian adult education, technology, and development scholars, scenario planning workshops across four geopolitical zones, and horizon scanning analysis of emerging educational technology developments. Four distinct adult education futures scenarios were constructed: Fragmented Digitisation, representing unequal and commercially driven digital adoption; State-Led Digital Inclusion, characterised by strategic public investment in digital adult education infrastructure; Community-Led Innovation, in which grassroots digital literacy organisations lead transformation; and Integrated Lifelong Digital Learning, representing a systemic transformation embedding digital literacy across all education levels and throughout adult life. Analysis of each scenario across equity, quality, access, and sustainability dimensions revealed that State-Led Digital Inclusion and Community-Led Innovation pathways offered the strongest prospects for inclusive adult education digital transformation. The study produces an original Nigerian Adult Education Digital Futures Strategic Framework providing scenario-contingent policy recommendations, investment priorities, and governance mechanisms for adaptive system navigation. Keywords: digital transformation, futures studies, adult education, scenario planning, Nigeria 2040.