Climate Change, Agricultural Total Factor Productivity, and Structural Adjustment in North Central Nigeria: A Dynamic Panel Econometric Analysis

Quantifying the impact of climate change on agricultural total factor productivity and modelling the structural adjustments required to maintain productivity growth trajectories represent critical research frontiers in the economics of climate change adaptation. In North Central Nigeria, a diverse agro-ecological zone bridging the Sudan and Guinea savannah, climate trends have been pronounced over the past three decades, yet their agricultural productivity consequences have not been rigorously estimated at the state level. This study applied dynamic panel econometric methods to analyse the impact of climate variables on agricultural total factor productivity in North Central Nigeria using a 30-year dataset spanning Benue, Kogi, Niger, Kwara, Nasarawa, and Plateau States. Malmquist productivity indices were estimated at the state-commodity level, and a dynamic panel error correction model was applied to disentangle short-run and long-run climate productivity effects. Temperature increase was found to exert a significant negative long-run effect on total factor productivity in all six states, while rainfall variability had larger short-run productivity disruption effects than long-run level effects. Structural adjustment simulations demonstrated that irrigation infrastructure investment and crop varietal innovation were the most effective adaptation investments for restoring productivity growth paths. The study makes an original methodological contribution to climate-productivity analysis in Nigerian agriculture, providing a dynamic framework applicable across agro-ecological zones. Keywords: climate change, total factor productivity, North Central Nigeria, dynamic panel, structural adjustment.