Structural Factors Influencing Vocational Education Policy Implementation Fidelity in Nigeria: A Systems Analysis

This study examined the structural factors that influence the fidelity of vocational education policy implementation in Nigeria, employing a systems analysis approach grounded in Bronfenbrenner's ecological systems theory and Pressman and Wildavsky's implementation theory. Policy implementation fidelity, defined as the degree to which implemented programmes match original policy intentions, is consistently low in Nigerian TVET, resulting in persistent gaps between policy ambition and institutional reality. The study used a sequential explanatory mixed-methods design, combining large-scale quantitative surveys of 400 policy implementers across six states in three geopolitical zones with qualitative case studies of policy implementation episodes in eight TVET institutions. Structural equation modelling identified five system-level determinants of implementation fidelity: clarity of policy communication, adequacy of resource provision, vertical coordination between governance levels, institutional absorptive capacity, and political will consistency. Absorptive capacity and resource adequacy explained the greatest variance in fidelity outcomes (combined R-squared = 0.59). Qualitative findings illuminated mechanisms of policy distortion at each governance level. The study proposes the Nigerian TVET Policy Implementation Systems Model (NTPISYM), an original theoretical contribution integrating ecological and implementation theory. These findings provide actionable insights for policymakers seeking to improve implementation effectiveness in Nigerian vocational education governance. Keywords: policy implementation, vocational education, Nigeria, systems analysis, implementation fidelity.