Carbon Credit Potential of Nigerian Forest Reserves: Opportunities for Conservation Finance

Forest carbon markets offer a promising mechanism for generating conservation finance in tropical forest nations by assigning economic value to avoided deforestation and forest carbon stocks. Nigeria's forest reserves, spanning multiple geopolitical zones, represent significant potential carbon assets, yet participation in verified carbon markets remains minimal. This study assesses the carbon credit potential of three forest reserves in Ondo State, Delta State, and Ebonyi State, representing the South West, South South, and South East geopolitical zones respectively. Using biomass estimation protocols based on basal area measurements from vegetation plots and allometric equations calibrated for West African forests, above-ground carbon stocks were calculated for each reserve. Additionality assessments evaluated the credibility of baseline deforestation scenarios. Results indicate that all three reserves maintain above-average carbon density relative to the surrounding landscape, and face documented deforestation threats sufficient to satisfy additionality requirements under the Verified Carbon Standard (VCS). Estimated carbon revenues at current voluntary market prices range from N42 million to N180 million per reserve per year depending on size and carbon density. Key barriers to market participation include inadequate technical capacity within state forestry departments, absence of land tenure instruments compatible with carbon credit issuance, and limited awareness of market procedures. The study recommends pilot carbon project development at the highest-potential site with support from international carbon finance intermediaries. Keywords: carbon credits, REDD+, forest reserves, conservation finance, Nigeria