Endogenous Determinants of Transport Sector Institutional Reform in Nigeria: A Comparative Historical Analysis

Institutional reform in the transport sector is rarely a linear response to technical imperatives; it is shaped by historical legacies, coalition dynamics, and the strategic interests of actors embedded in existing institutional arrangements. This study analyses the endogenous determinants of transport sector institutional reform in Nigeria through a comparative historical analysis of four major reform episodes: the 1955 road transport ordinance, the 1988 dissolution of the Nigerian Railway Corporation, the 2006 port concessioning, and the 2013 National Transport Policy revision. The study employs historical institutionalism as its primary theoretical lens, incorporating path dependence theory, punctuated equilibrium models, and the advocacy coalition framework. Primary sources include declassified government documents, legislative Hansard records, archival newspaper sources, and 50 retrospective elite interviews with retired officials and transport industry figures. Analysis reveals that all four reform episodes were triggered by fiscal crises that dislodged previously stable institutional equilibria, but the content of reform was heavily shaped by pre-existing institutional configurations, international donor conditionalities, and the strategies of incumbent rent-extracting coalitions. The railway reform case demonstrates how institutional lock-in created by political patronage networks can persist for decades despite overwhelming evidence of economic failure. Original theoretical contributions include a Punctuated Path Dependence model that accounts for Nigeria-specific crisis-reform-reversion cycles and a typology of coalition strategies for and against transport institutional change. These contributions advance comparative institutional analysis in developing country transport management. Keywords: institutional reform, transport governance, historical institutionalism, Nigeria, path dependence.