Towards a Behavioural Theory of Transport Safety Management in Nigerian Commercial Road Transport Organisations

Road transport safety outcomes in Nigerian commercial organisations are shaped not only by regulatory compliance but by organisational behaviour, management systems, and driver psychology in ways that existing safety management frameworks inadequately theorise. This study develops a behavioural theory of transport safety management grounded in the specific organisational and cultural context of Nigerian commercial road transport firms. The research employs a multi-phase design combining a systematic review of safety management theory, a Delphi study with 30 Nigerian transport safety experts, an ethnographic study of three commercial transport organisations in Lagos, Kano, and Enugu over a 12-month period, and a structural equation model tested on survey data from 350 drivers and 80 safety managers. The study critically engages with high reliability organisation theory, safety climate research, and behavioural safety management literature, identifying significant contextual mismatches when these frameworks are applied to Nigerian commercial transport settings, particularly regarding informal authority structures, driver economic vulnerability, and fatalism dimensions of safety culture. An original Contextualised Nigerian Transport Safety Management model is developed, incorporating organisational safety climate, economic safety incentive systems, driver identity, and regulatory pressure as interacting determinants of safety behaviour. Structural equation modelling results demonstrate superior fit of the new model over adapted international frameworks. Original contributions include the theorisation of economic precarity as a safety climate moderator and a culturally validated safety climate instrument for Nigerian transport organisations. Keywords: transport safety management, behavioural theory, safety climate, Nigerian transport, commercial road transport.