Monitoring Desertification Trends in Sokoto State Using MODIS Satellite Data

Desertification represents a critical threat to livelihoods in the semi-arid environments of North West Nigeria. This study monitors desertification trends in Sokoto State using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer time-series data spanning 2016 to 2023. Vegetation indices including the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index and the Enhanced Vegetation Index are extracted and analysed on a seasonal basis to track changes in vegetation cover. The study area encompasses three local government areas, namely Gudu, Tangaza, and Rabah, selected for their documented exposure to Saharan dust incursion and land degradation. Soil-adjusted vegetation index values are correlated with rainfall anomaly data from the Climate Hazards Infrared Precipitation with Stations dataset to separate climate-induced from anthropogenic vegetation loss. Results indicate a progressive southward migration of degraded land surfaces, consistent with regional desertification dynamics reported in recent literature. Overgrazing, fuel wood harvesting, and erratic rainfall patterns are identified as primary drivers. The study recommends the adoption of farmer-managed natural regeneration and shelterbelts using indigenous drought-resistant species to stabilise degraded surfaces. Outputs are intended to support the Great Green Wall Nigeria Programme and the Sokoto State Ministry of Environment. Keywords: desertification, MODIS, vegetation index, Sokoto, land degradation