Spatial Pattern Analysis of Tuberculosis Incidence in Plateau State Using GIS

Tuberculosis remains a significant public health burden across several states in Nigeria's North Central geopolitical zone. This study analyses the spatial pattern of tuberculosis incidence in Plateau State using GIS-based spatial statistics. Case data from the State Tuberculosis and Leprosy Control Programme for the period 2019 to 2023 are geo-referenced to local government areas and wards. Global and local Moran's I statistics are computed to detect spatial autocorrelation and identify significant disease clusters. Environmental covariates including population density, household crowding index, altitude, and proximity to health facilities are integrated as explanatory variables in a spatial regression model. Results identify high-incidence clusters in the urban core of Jos North and the peri-urban communities of Barkin Ladi and Riyom LGAs. Altitude and seasonal temperature patterns show significant inverse correlations with transmission rates in rural highland areas. The study recommends targeted community-based active case finding campaigns in identified hotspot areas. Keywords: tuberculosis, GIS, spatial analysis, Plateau State, disease clustering