Analysis of Gas Supply Security Risks to Power Plants in Kano State

Gas supply security to power generation facilities is a critical dimension of Nigeria's electricity supply reliability, given the dominance of gas-fired generation in the national power mix. This study analyses the gas supply security risks facing power plants in Kano State, particularly the Kano Independent Power Plant and embedded generation facilities within the Challawa and Sharada industrial parks. The research employs a risk assessment methodology combining supply chain analysis, historical gas supply interruption records, and interviews with plant managers and pipeline operators. Risk categories examined include upstream production variability, pipeline integrity incidents, gas quality non-conformances, commercial contractual risks, and political force majeure events. The study maps the gas supply routes serving the Kano facilities and identifies single points of failure in the supply chain, including segments of the North-West pipeline corridor lacking bypass alternatives. A risk severity and likelihood matrix is developed to prioritise the identified risks, and mitigation options are evaluated for technical feasibility and cost-effectiveness. Findings indicate that pipeline integrity incidents and commercial supply disputes are the highest-scoring risk categories, responsible for the majority of historical gas supply interruptions recorded at the studied facilities. Recommendations include investment in dual-supply pipeline connectivity, development of emergency gas storage reserves, strengthening of take-or-pay contract enforcement, and enhanced pipeline surveillance programmes. These findings contribute to gas supply security planning for power utilities in northwestern Nigeria. Keywords: gas supply security, power plants, Kano, risk assessment, supply chain.