Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis for Hospital Site Selection in Kwara State

Equitable distribution of healthcare facilities across Kwara State, North Central Nigeria, requires systematic site selection processes that balance accessibility, population coverage, infrastructure availability, and economic viability. This study applies multi-criteria decision analysis using the Analytic Hierarchy Process to evaluate and rank five candidate locations for a proposed secondary health facility in three underserved Local Government Areas: Baruten, Kaiama, and Moro. Seven evaluation criteria are identified through literature review and stakeholder consultation: population within 10-kilometre radius, distance to existing health facility, road accessibility index, land availability and cost, water supply reliability, electricity grid proximity, and security classification. Pairwise comparison matrices are constructed and verified for consistency using the consistency ratio threshold of 0.10. The AHP framework processes expert weights from 15 healthcare planners and public health officials. A geographic information system analysis overlays spatial data layers to compute objective criterion scores for each candidate location. Results indicate that the Lafiagi site in Kaiama LGA achieves the highest composite priority score of 0.34, primarily driven by superior population coverage and road accessibility ratings. Sensitivity analysis confirms ranking robustness to moderate changes in criterion weights. The study provides a transparent, repeatable decision support tool applicable to health infrastructure planning in other Nigerian states. Keywords: Analytic Hierarchy Process, multi-criteria decision analysis, hospital site selection, Kwara State, GIS.