Insurgency and Counterinsurgency in Nigeria’s Northeast: Evaluating the Effectiveness of the Multinational Joint Task Force (2020-2024)

This study evaluates the effectiveness of the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) in countering Boko Haram and Islamic State West Africa Province insurgency in Nigeria's Northeast between 2020 and 2024. The insurgency has displaced millions of civilians, disrupted governance, and challenged Nigeria's territorial sovereignty, making counterinsurgency effectiveness a critical concern for regional stability. The study is anchored on Strategic Studies Theory, particularly Colin Gray's concept of strategic effectiveness, which evaluates military operations by their success in achieving defined political objectives. A documentary research design was employed, drawing on United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs reports, MNJTF communiques, government security assessments, and peer-reviewed security studies. Findings indicate that the MNJTF has achieved partial operational success, with notable territorial gains and faction-splitting among insurgent groups between 2021 and 2023. However, the study reveals persistent deficits in intelligence sharing, logistics coordination, and civilian protection across the four member states of the task force. The study further finds that civilian casualties attributable to counterinsurgency operations have complicated community-military relations, reducing the intelligence cooperation vital for sustained operational success. It is concluded that the MNJTF has demonstrated operational relevance but remains strategically limited in its capacity to achieve durable security. The study recommends enhanced inter-state intelligence sharing protocols, civilian protection training for all MNJTF contingents, and a comprehensive post-conflict reconstruction plan for the Lake Chad Basin.

Keywords: Insurgency, counterinsurgency, Multinational Joint Task Force, Boko Haram, Northeast Nigeria